This essay, which appeared in the Fall 2004 issue of Orbis, reviews Friendly Fire: The Near Death of the Transatlantic Alliance, by Elizabeth Pond; America Unbound: The Bush Revolution in Foreign Policy, by Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay; and Allies at War: America, Europe and the Crisis over Iraq, by Philip H. Gordon and Jeremy Shapiro. It looks at the impact the Iraq war is likely to have on U.S.-European relations; how the dispute will affect NATO in particular; how it has affected Europe’s goal to develop its own foreign policy and increase its autonomy from the United States; and how it has affected public opinion on either side of the Atlantic.
These three books were all written by committed Atlanticists. The authors value the many benefits that accrue from close U.S.-European cooperation: all clearly hope that relations within NATO can be repaired and that transatlantic tensions will subside. However, without firm political leadership on both sides, this could prove difficult. The dispute over Iraq brings together various transatlantic tensions that have existed for many years: differences in threat perceptions, disagreements over Iraq and the Middle East in general, the impact of widely differing military capabilities and of an emerging “Europe,” and growing transatlantic estrangement.
In the past, NATO allies overcame transatlantic crises of this order because of their mutual need to counter the Soviet threat. Today, that constraint has disappeared. Had the Iraq crisis come to a rapid conclusion, these tensions would most likely have subsided, at least in the short run. However, the situation in Iraq is unlikely to be resolved in the near future. In the absence of any serious effort on either side of the Atlantic to manage tensions and influence public opinion, the risk of permanent damage is very high.